Economics

• The Uncertainty Premium of Climate Tipping Points (2023 - ongoing) - R&R @ JEEM
  This paper studies how deep uncertainty about climate tipping points affects optimal climate policy and the social cost of carbon. Using an integrated assessment model with temperature feedbacks, it shows that tipping point uncertainty raises the social cost of carbon by 12–50%, adding roughly $20–40 per tonne when tipping points occur below 2.5°C of warming. While earlier detection of tipping points reduces this uncertainty premium by about 9%, the results highlight that near-term emissions reductions remain the most effective way to limit tipping-point risk.

• Endogenous Fragility of Supply Chains and Correlated Disruption Risk (2022 - 2024) - Under Review
  Models the endogenous formation of supply chains under correlated disruptions, showing that greater correlation among upstream producers reduces downstream diversification incentives and can trigger widespread under-diversification and large welfare losses; improved information about supply-chain risk can further exacerbate these losses.

Work in progress

• An NLP analysis of institutional investor’s stance towards environmental sustainability (with Davide Grossi, Alessio M. Pacces, Xinyi Wang) (2022 - ongoing)
  We use computational techniques to identify influence of institutional shareholders on corporate decision-making.

• Options can stabilise markets with Donald Hagesteijn and Cars Hommes (2024 - ongoing)
  We show that trading binary at-the-money put option can stabilise markets and mitigate bubble formation, in asset pricing models with trend-following agents

Neuroscience

• Bayesian Model of Motion Extrapolation (with Philippa Johnson) - 2022
  We model the brain compensation of neural delays in motion perception.